Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics

NWIPB OpenIR

	Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics
	Jin, Zhenong ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Dukes, Jeffrey S. ; He, Jin-Sheng ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Chen, Min ; Zhang, Tonglin ; Luo, Tianxiang
	2016-10-01
发表期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
摘要	Static thermal requirements (T (req) ) are widely used to model the timing of phenology, yet may significantly bias phenological projections under future warming conditions, since recent studies argue that climate warming will increase T (req) for triggering vegetation phenology. This study investigates the temporal trend and inter-annual variation of T (req) derived from satellite-based spring and autumn phenology for the alpine and temperate vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2011. While we detected persistent warming in both spring and autumn across this time period, we did not find a corresponding long-term increase in T (req) for most of the study area. Instead, we found a substantial interannual variability of T (req) that could be largely explained by interannual variations in other climatic factors. Specifically, the number of chilling days and fall temperature were robust variables for predicting the dynamics of T (req) for spring onset and autumn senescence, respectively. Phenology models incorporating a dynamic T (req) algorithm performed slightly better than those with static T (req) values in reproducing phenology derived from SPOT-VGT NDVI data. To assess the degree to which T (req) variation affects large-scale phenology and carbon cycling projections, we compared the output from versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that incorporated static and dynamic T (req) values in their phenology algorithms. Under two contrasting future climate scenarios, the dynamic T (req) setting reduced the projected growing season length by up to 1-3 weeks by the late twenty-first century, leading to a maximum reduction of 8.9 % in annual net primary production and similar to 15 % in cumulative net ecosystem production for this region. Our study reveals that temporal dynamics of T (req) meaningfully affect the carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, and should thus be considered in future ecosystem carbon modeling.
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://210.75.249.4/handle/363003/22684
专题	中国科学院西北高原生物研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Zhenong,Zhuang, Qianlai,Dukes, Jeffrey S.,et al. Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2016.
APA	Jin, Zhenong.,Zhuang, Qianlai.,Dukes, Jeffrey S..,He, Jin-Sheng.,Sokolov, Andrei P..,...&Luo, Tianxiang.(2016).Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics.CLIMATIC CHANGE.
MLA	Jin, Zhenong,et al."Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics".CLIMATIC CHANGE (2016).