Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1736-8

NWIPB OpenIR

	Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics
	Jin, Zhenong 1; Zhuang, Qianlai 1,2; Dukes, Jeffrey S.3,4; He, Jin-Sheng 5,6; Sokolov, Andrei P.7; Chen, Min 1; Zhang, Tonglin 8; Luo, Tianxiang 9
	2016-10-01
发表期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
卷号	138 期号:3-4 页码:617-632
文章类型	Article
摘要	Static thermal requirements (T (req) ) are widely used to model the timing of phenology, yet may significantly bias phenological projections under future warming conditions, since recent studies argue that climate warming will increase T (req) for triggering vegetation phenology. This study investigates the temporal trend and inter-annual variation of T (req) derived from satellite-based spring and autumn phenology for the alpine and temperate vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2011. While we detected persistent warming in both spring and autumn across this time period, we did not find a corresponding long-term increase in T (req) for most of the study area. Instead, we found a substantial interannual variability of T (req) that could be largely explained by interannual variations in other climatic factors. Specifically, the number of chilling days and fall temperature were robust variables for predicting the dynamics of T (req) for spring onset and autumn senescence, respectively. Phenology models incorporating a dynamic T (req) algorithm performed slightly better than those with static T (req) values in reproducing phenology derived from SPOT-VGT NDVI data. To assess the degree to which T (req) variation affects large-scale phenology and carbon cycling projections, we compared the output from versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that incorporated static and dynamic T (req) values in their phenology algorithms. Under two contrasting future climate scenarios, the dynamic T (req) setting reduced the projected growing season length by up to 1-3 weeks by the late twenty-first century, leading to a maximum reduction of 8.9 % in annual net primary production and similar to 15 % in cumulative net ecosystem production for this region. Our study reveals that temporal dynamics of T (req) meaningfully affect the carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, and should thus be considered in future ecosystem carbon modeling.
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Physical Sciences
DOI	10.1007/s10584-016-1736-8
关键词[WOS]	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPRING PHENOLOGY ; GROWING-SEASON ; GREEN-UP ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURES ; ADAPTATION ; GRASSLANDS ; FEEDBACKS
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
项目资助者	NSF project (DEB-)(0919331) ; NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program(NSF-0630319) ; NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program(NASA-NNX09AI26G) ; Department of Energy(DE-FG02-08ER64599) ; NSF Division of Information & Intelligent Systems(NSF-1028291)
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000383615200018
引用统计	被引频次：13[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://210.75.249.4/handle/363003/6422
专题	中国科学院西北高原生物研究所
作者单位	1.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, CIVIL 550 Stadium Mall Dr, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 2.Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 3.Purdue Univ, Dept Forestry & Nat Resources, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 4.Purdue Univ, Dept Biol Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Plateau Biol, Key Lab Adaptat & Evolut Plateau Biota, Xining 810008, Peoples R China 6.Peking Univ, Dept Ecol, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 7.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA 8.Purdue Univ, Dept Stat, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Zhenong,Zhuang, Qianlai,Dukes, Jeffrey S.,et al. Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2016,138(3-4):617-632.
APA	Jin, Zhenong.,Zhuang, Qianlai.,Dukes, Jeffrey S..,He, Jin-Sheng.,Sokolov, Andrei P..,...&Luo, Tianxiang.(2016).Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics.CLIMATIC CHANGE,138(3-4),617-632.
MLA	Jin, Zhenong,et al."Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics".CLIMATIC CHANGE 138.3-4(2016):617-632.